The Iowa Hawkeyes (12-3) visit the State Farm Center Friday (1/29) to take on the Fighting Illini (10-5). The team that emerges victorious will move into 2nd place in the B10 conference standings.

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Iowa Offense

Kenpom Rating: 1st

Barttorvik Ranking: 1st

Everyone who watches college basketball knows that Iowa has an elite offense. They have a stable of shooters to pair with the best player in the country in Luka Garza.

Garza is averaging nearly 27ppg, and is doing it in a multitude of ways (46.2% from 3 and 65% from inside the arc). In addition to Garza’s marksmanship, Iowa has 3 imperative time 3pt gunners: CJ Fredrick (50%), Joe Wieskamp (43.6%) and Jordan Bohannon (37.5%).

When Garza inevitably gets rolling and those shooters get hot, Iowa looks unstoppable. The Hawks can go inside and out as well as anyone in the country, so defensive stops aren’t easy to come by. Below is a more detailed chart in regards to Iowa’s points per possession (PPP):

Unsurprisingly, Iowa’s tandem of Garza and Wieskamp are ridiculously efficient at putting the ball in the hoop. Notably, Keagan Murray and CJ Fredrick are also extremely efficient, albeit with lower usage rates.

So how does Iowa schematically go about scoring the ball?

Below is a chart representing the breakdown of how Iowa gets their shots:

As you can see, Iowa is a jump shooting team, and a very good one at that. They run a lot of motion predicated on Garza screens and post ups.

Everything in this Hawkeye offense starts with Garza. And the biggest decision defenses have to make is: do you double Luka or play him 1 on 1? One decision allows him to assuredly score 30+ points on the night. The other permits Iowa’s 3pt assassins wide open looks.

Since Garza is such a capable 3pt shooter, and effective screener/sealer, he also begins many offensive sets on the perimeter. Subsequently, Iowa is able to spread the court, getting fantastic looks on spot ups and post ups.

Garza also spearheads Iowa’s transition attack with Joe Wieskamp. He scores a ridiculous (for a big man) 1.44PPP in transition opportunities he is involved in. More specifically, he does a great job of beating his man down the court and sealing:

Iowa, and Garza in particular, also kill teams on the glass. According to Kenpom, Iowa is rebounding an average of 34% of their misses on offense (good for 32nd best in Division 1). Garza averages 3.3 OREB’s a game, and scores roughly 70% of the time he gets one. He’s also fouled on roughly 20% of his offensive put-backs.

Illinois Defensive Keys:

For Illinois to defend Iowa, they first must address how they want to defend Luka. One would think that Illinois would have to try letting Kofi Cockburn play him 1 on 1, so that the guards can fully focus on staying on top of Fredrick, Wieskamp and Bohannon.

Illinois will definitely be looking at the game tape from Iowa’s last game against the Hoosiers (a 69-81 loss). In that game, Indiana seemed to occasionally sent a double team where the guard would try to dig the ball from Garza (instead of doubling with his hands straight up in the air). This proved to be effective in the closing minutes of the game.

Garza is going to get his 20-30 points no matter what. There’s no stopping the man. One player that Illinois definitely doesn’t want going off, is Jordan Bohannon. Bohannon has been on a bit of a rollercoaster this season in terms of his 3pt shooting. When he’s hot, it seems to unlock Iowa’s full potential. But when he struggles, so do the Hawks. JBo is 1-20 from 3, with 9 total points in Iowa’s 3 losses this year.

Every team Illinois plays attempts to expose Kofi in pick and roll actions. The good news is that besides Joe Toussiant (.857 PPP in ball handling PNR situations), Iowa doesn’t have an elite pick and roll ball handler. The cause for concern will be Luka Garza pick and pop situations (where he scores 1.654 PPP). Can Kofi get out to contest these looks?

Garza also likes to throw in a pump fake and take a few dribbles inside the arc. Kofi will have to be fundamentally sound on his closeouts.

Iowa Defense

Kenpom Rating: 100th

Barttorvik Rating: 118th

You’ve heard the narrative already: Iowa has a nearly unmatchable offense, but their defense is suspect. All of the advanced metrics seem to support this statement:

The Hawkeyes will switch up between man and zone throughout the game. According to Synergy, the Hawks play man 57% of the time and zone the other 43%. Lately, the Hawkeyes seem to be playing a lot more zone, which explains why teams are utilizing nearly 30% of their possessions on spot up jumpers against them.

Furthermore, the Hawks are allowing teams uncontested jump shots over 46% of the time (Synergy) and are giving up over 77 points per game to Power 5 opponents on the year. Additionally, 40% of all the Hawkeye’s opponents attempts are 3’s, and Iowa only ranks in the 40th percentile in 3pt defense. And while the Hawks do a good job of offensive rebounding, they also give up offensive rebounds on 30% of opponent’s possessions (undoubtedly due to their zone defense).

Once Iowa transitions into their zone defense, the biggest key getting the ball inside of the 3pt line. As it is versus most defenses, getting a paint touch, high post touch, or drive tends to break down Iowa’s defense. Teams are able to get easy baskets off of cuts and kick outs.

Iowa is also poor in transition (43rd percentile). This was on full display in the ACC/B10 Challenge against North Carolina. The Tar Heels scored a majority of their points in the first half off of transition possessions:

Illinois Offensive Keys

The good news for the Illini is that they are one of the top transition teams in the country (92nd percentile) and have one of the top transition players in Ayo Dosunmu. They should look to get out and run on Iowa at any opportunity.

Additionally, Illinois will look to penetrate early and often on the Hawkeye defense. The Illini have been at their worst on offense this season when they simply move the ball around the perimeter and take contested 3’s. In addition to Ayo, this could be a big opportunity for Andre Curbelo, who thrives on getting into the lane and finding others. He should be able to do this with regularity:

Jacob Grandison also did a nice job of passing out of the middle of the zone against Penn State last time out. Look for him to potentially be key again. Building off that, Illinois will obviously try to feed Kofi as often as possible. Though he isn’t really known for it, Kofi will have many opportunities for quick kick outs to guys like Adam Miller and Trent Frazier.

Summary

Iowa has a potent offense and a fairly mediocre defense. However, your defense doesn’t have to be that spectacular when you’re scoring over 90 points per game and have the NPOY on the roster.

The Illini have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the B10 this year. The first and second half scores of the Northwestern game are a perfect microcosm of their inconsistencies:

Illinois can’t afford to start off slow against an elite offense like Iowa.

Odds are that both teams will show up focused after last year’s fiery meetings. Similar to last year, expect an intense game that could come down to the wire.

Limiting the Hawkeye’s 3pt shooting will be key. Look for Illinois to go over every ball screen. Iowa has shot under 34% from 3 against high major opponents 3 times on the season. All three were losses.

However, it’s difficult to believe Iowa won’t be hitting a majority of their shots after an 11 minute field goal drought last time out against Indiana. Illinois’ 3pt defense has also been suspect of late. Therefore, I think this game depends on the Illini’s offense and 3pt shooting. If they can get going, then this could be a competitive and high scoring game.

Illinois Final Keys:

• Start out fast.
• Play inside-outside basketball. Get in the lane and move the ball.
• Get out in transition whenever possible.
• Limit Garza on the offensive glass.
• Avoid Garza pump fakes and Kofi foul trouble.
• Opportunistic double teams with guard dig downs on Garza.
• Stay locked on Fredrick, Wieskamp, and Bohannon on the 3 point line.

CJ Fredrick is still day to day with a leg injury. Fran McCaffery has indicated he will be a game time decision. Look for Keagan Murray to slide into the starting lineup if Fredrick can’t go.

All statistics via Synergy, Kenpom, and SportsReference.

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